The new iPhone 7 is expected to hit the shelves in September, and if the leaks that have reached the web lately are to be believed, it might only bring small changes in terms of looks, form factor, and features.

But according to a recent forecast made by BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long, the small changes that Apple is planning for the iPhone 7 won’t have a dramatic impact on sales figures.

And despite them, the iPhone 7 is very likely to become the best-selling iPhone ever thanks to one simple factor: the number of active iPhone users with an old model has reached a new record, and many of them are expected to upgrade when the new version goes live in the fall.

Simple estimates show that the analyst could be right. Back in September 2014, when Apple launched the iPhone 6, only 23 percent of the existing iPhone users had a device that was at least two years old while the percentage dropped to 19 percent the following year at the unveiling of the iPhone 6s.

120 million iPhone users willing to upgrade

But when the iPhone 7 launches this September, more than 25 percent of customers will be using an iPhone that’s at least two years old, and according to forecasts, a big part of them are likely to purchase the new model.

The analyst even has some numbers that the iPhone 7 could reach after launch. He expects that 120 million users would be ready for an upgrade to the new phone, and although not all of them might actually purchase the iPhone 7, 100 million still seems a very possible figure.

Interestingly, Apple expects sales that aren’t as optimistic as these forecasts, as the company has recently placed orders for 78 million units to its suppliers. And yet, it’s worth mentioning that Apple expects these units to be sold only in 2016 alone, so shipments could increase in early 2017, when the device arrives in more markets.

Certainly, these forecasts can easily be inaccurate, but it’s very clear that Apple’s devices are still generating enthusiasm despite how dramatic the changes that the company is planning actually are. The iPhone 7, however, is expected to be succeeded by a bigger overhaul that would include an OLED screen, no bezels, and other innovating features in 2017.

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